Don’t Bank On Shanghai Group

Context: The institutional promise of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) remains just a promise. 

About Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

• SCO is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation, with the aim of
  • Strengthening mutual trust and neighbourliness among the member states and promoting their effective cooperation in politics, trade, the economy, research, technology and culture, as well as in education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, and other areas.
  • Making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region and moving towards the establishment of a democratic, fair and rational new international political and economic order.
• 8 member states: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
• 4 observer states: Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia.
• 6 dialogue partners: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka. Expected to add Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as dialogue partners.

Limitations of SCO

• SCO has failed to deepen regional cooperation in Central Asia: SCO looks better than SAARC, where differences between India and Pakistan proved to be the roadblock. But SAARC has set such a low bar.
  • Turkmenistan not in SCO: As the organising principle of Turkmenistan rulers is absolute “neutrality”, an extreme form of “non-alignment”. It refuses to join any regional institution, political or military.
• Anti-American agenda: When SCO was conceived, it was about limiting American reach into Central Asia.
• Limited security ambit: Russia sees itself as the sole protector of former Soviet Republics and may not be ready to share that role with China, “yes” to coordination, but “no” to a Sino-Russian security dyarchy.
• Trade and economic integration missing: Russia appears reluctant to back Chinese proposals to promote trade integration under the SCO banner. It prefers the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) under its own leadership but China is not a member of EAEU.
• Infightings: The Central Asian members of the SCO have quarrels of their own, and have struggled to develop collective approaches to their common regional security challenges.
• Ineffectiveness in handling of Afghan situation: There are considerable differences among members as
  • Turkmenistan as a weak link, which is not part of SCO, has been quite open to engaging the Taliban in sync with its principles of neutrality.
  • Russia, China and Iran were happy to see the Americans leave in humiliation and appeared hopeful of a positive engagement with the Taliban. Those hopes may have been suspended for now, if not discarded.
  • India and Pakistan, are poles apart on the Taliban.

Conclusion: While the SCO is not an impressive regional institution, it remains an important diplomatic forum.

• India’s focus: Shall remain on “three evils” that SCO set out to defeat, terrorism, extremism and separatism.
• Handling Afghan situation: While India must contribute to the collective effort at SCO to hold the Taliban and Pakistan to their promises, it will be hard to bet on success.