Deconstructing Declarations Of Carbon-neutrality

Context: India should refrain from joining the global game of declaring carbon neutrality, as it has to stay focused on development as its immediate need and aspirational goal.

Recent thrust towards Carbon Neutrality:

• Latest count of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), around 8 countries have formally established the targets, and 32 have made informal commitments.
• Impetus of such declarations:
  • Article 2 of the Paris Agreement: Targets- Holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C.
  • Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement: Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties.

Issues with the thrust towards Carbon Neutrality: A three-­way compatibility between temperature goals, carbon neutrality, and equity is not guaranteed.

• Achievement of carbon neutrality is incompatible with a 1.5°C or 2°C targets:
  • According to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5° warming, from 2018 onwards, for a 50% probability of restricting temperature rise to less than 1.5°C, the carbon budget available is 480 Giga­ tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO2eq).
  • At the current rate of emissions of about 42 GtCO2eq per year, this budget would be consumed in 12 years.
  • Alternatively, global carbon neutrality must be reached by 2039.
  • However, for a 50% probability of restricting temperature rise to below 2°C, the budget is considerably more generous, amounting to about 1,400 GtCO2eq.
• Undermines equity and principles of common but differentiated responsibility: The balance of emissions and removal of GHGs is not sought on a country-­wise basis but for the world as a whole
  • Developed countries have a huge carbon debt: US’s cumulative emissions between 2018 and 2050 would be 106 GtCO2 (22% of the total remaining whole carbon budget).
  • If the US has to stay in its fair share of agreement, it should reach net-zero emission by 2025.

Way forward: India’s approach to eventual net­-zero emissions is contingent on deep first world emissions re­ ductions and an adequate and un­ ambiguous global carbon budget. It should not join the carbon neutrality trend for a number of reasons -

• Developmental aspirations: Quest for sustainability shall not limit India’s scope for development, including poverty eradication.
• India does not owe a carbon debt to the world:
  • India’s emissions are no more than 3.5% of cumulative global emissions prior to 1990.
  • India’s mitigation efforts are quite compatible with a 2°C target.
• India’s leadership role: India can take the lead in sustainable development since its current low carbon footprint is because of its poverty and not by virtue of sustainability. Two aspects can be considered.
  • Taking the lead in some global ecological alternative driven by frugality, minimal consumption and little technological advance –may become politically infeasible.
  • Emerge as a leader of green manufacturing and industry, bellied on overall economic growth