Deal With The New Kabul

Context: Demonising the Taliban will be counterproductive. India should know the power of ethnonationalism.

The root cause of Afghan regime change

• Based on inequality that haunts the interstate relationship: The Taliban’s interim government is an inevitable outcome of the United States, a privileged player in a rigged game through the 20-year period of war.
  • The US got away with moralising to cover greed and self-interest and with breaking laws. It told off the International Criminal Court, which sought to look into the US’s war crimes.
  • Resolution 2593 passed by the UN Security Council dictating a code of conduct for the Taliban.

Understanding the way of Afghans: Dealing with Taliban requires India to acknowledge the true situation and needs of Afghanistan and its people.

• Famous for robust self-respect: Pashtunwali, or the way of the Afghans, promotes hospitality, love and forgiveness and tolerance (even to the enemy) — but it is also famous for robust self-respect.
  • Taliban’s takeover is an act of derision as much as stubborn defiance. This must be understood.
  • Taliban, in its current form, doesn’t need the US’s grant of legitimacy since its’ not the American prerogative anymore (Iran and Cuba have long remained in that position).
• Afghans needs are elementary: Its subsistence economy is not looking for nanotechnology from the US or the Raspberry Pi computer from the UK.
  • Its reconstruction remains very basic as of now — roads, high- ways, transport, healthcare, foundational services and structures in public health and education, capacity building, job creation, etc.
  • Afghanistan is estimated to have mineral wealth worth around $3 trillion, which can generate income.
• Demise of factionalism: The curtain is coming down on the era of warlordism that had given verve to the erstwhile Northern Alliance.
  • The US prognosis of ISIS and apocalyptic predictions of imminent civil war are driven more by propagandistic considerations.
• Overriding regional security concerns: All regional nations would agree that border security, drug trafficking, and regional stability are overriding concerns.
  • Such a regional climate precludes the possibility of any of the neighbouring countries acting as “spoilers” or undermining Afghanistan’s stability and security.

Way Forward

• Harmonise regional relationship: Continued bandwagoning with the US makes no sense. Indian diplomacy should harmonise with the regional capitals, including China, which can be a natural ally on issues of terrorism.
  • Breathing life into the RIC platform can be a pragmatic next step.
• Appreciating the potency of ethnonationalism: Afghan sensitivities must be borne in mind in words and deeds. Demonising the Taliban can only be counterproductive.