The Uttar Pradesh Initiative

Context: A critical analysis of the recent Draft Population Policy 2021-30 brought by the Uttar Pradesh government.

Objectives of the Draft Population Policy

• To align the state’s reproductive rate to its development goals by reducing it from the current 2.7% to 2.1% by 2026 and to 1.9% by 2030. The national average in 2020 was 2.2%.

Evolution of population control policies in India

• As a part of national policy: In the early years of independence: Population control was an accepted part of national policy. We all recall the slogan, ‘Hum do, hamare do’.
• New narrative based on human development: The new narrative which took hold was that limitation of population growth was a function of an increase in incomes and a general rise in prosperity
  • This conclusion was borne out also in the example of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which enjoyed high literacy rates and relative greater female empowerment.
• Narrative of ‘demographic dividend’ post-liberalisation:
  • Where India’s growing population, with a high proportion of young people, began to be projected as an asset for ensuring accelerated rates of growth.
  • Demographic dividends can be encashed only if the young and productive component of a country’s population can be gainfully employed.
  • For this, it is also necessary to have sufficient capital for setting up labour-intensive industries and adopting policies that favour labour-intensive activities.
  • Other factors also become important such as the quality of manpower. This is dependent on access to health and education.
  • India still has a few more years before its phase of potential demographic dividend comes to an end and the population begins to stabilise at around 1.6 billion by 2050.

Issues with the UP’s initiative:

• A tacit admission of missed demographic dividend: The introduction of the draft admits that a larger population is only likely to increase the proportion of the dependent population to the productive population in the country.
• Population control is impermissible in a democracy: A one-child policy that may have succeeded in moderating population growth, but that kind of inhumane state action is impermissible in a democracy.

Suggestions: Instead of harsh population control, we need a better public health policy and a better education policy, and above all, a coherent economic strategy.

• Expand labour-intensive manufacturing and transform India into a base for low-labour-cost economic activity.
  • This is what we saw at play earlier in China and now see unfolding in Vietnam and even next door in Bangladesh.
  • The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, for example, is putting massive money into promoting capital and technology-intensive industries which have low employment potential. Instead, the focus should be on promoting small and medium industry.
• Aiming for a higher growth rate: Automatically reduces the reproductive rate and is a better proposition than hoping to raise economic growth through limiting population growth. The latter is a questionable assumption.
• Controlling through public health policies: Including reduction in mortality rate among mothers and children, encouragement to the longer spacing of births and promoting the overall health of mother and child.