UNEP FORESIGHT REPORT (Syllabus: GS Paper 2 – Health)

Context: The United Nations' UNEP Foresight Report warns that new emerging zoonotic diseases could lead to another pandemic by 2030.

Zoonotic Disease

• About: It is a disease that has passed into the human population from an animal source directly or through an intermediary species.
• Zoonotic infections: It can be bacterial, viral, or parasitic in nature, with animals playing a vital role in maintaining such infections.
• Examples: HIV-AIDS, Ebola, Lyme disease, malaria, rabies, West Nile fever, and the current novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disease.
• Common zoonotic diseases in India: Rabies, anthrax, brucellosis, plague, bovine tuberculosis, leptospirosis and salmonellosis.
• According to the World Health Organisation: Zoonotic pathogens may be bacterial, viral or parasitic, and can spread to humans through direct contact or through food, water or the environment.

UNEP Foresight Report

• Published by: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Focus: It is focused on emerging environmental issues and that global problems and challenges faced.
• Based on: Nearly 1,200 responses submitted by 790 respondents to a survey conducted in May, 2023. This exercise identified 280 specific signals of change. 
• Foresight Expert Panel: Comprising 22 distinguished members of the scientific community from developing and industrialised countries – further shortlisted the signals.

Key Findings

• Urbanization accelerates habitat fragmentation, bringing humans into closer contact with wildlife and increasing the likelihood of zoonotic disease transmission.
• Wildlife trafficking disrupts ecosystems and can introduce novel pathogens to human populations, fostering zoonotic disease outbreaks.
• Studies indicate a continual rise in spillover events, with annual rates increasing between 5% and 8%, highlighting the growing threat of zoonotic diseases.
• By 2050, common zoonotic pathogens are projected to cause significantly more human fatalities compared to 2020, underlining the escalating danger posed by these diseases.
• Previous outbreaks like COVID-19, Ebola, H5N1, MERS, Nipah virus, SARS, and influenza A/H1N1 have resulted in substantial human and economic losses, emphasizing the severe consequences of zoonotic disease outbreaks.