INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND (Syllabus: GS Paper 1 – Indian Society)

Context: The World Bank has recently warned that the South Asia region, including India, has not been effectively leveraging its demographic dividend, as the rate of job creation in the region has significantly lagged behind the growth in the working-age population.

India’s Demographic Dividend

• About: It refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country’s population.
• India Surpasses China in Population: In 2022, India overtook China as the world's most populous country, with a population of 1.417 billion, marking a significant demographic shift.
• India's Projected Population Growth: Projections by the United Nations estimate India's population to reach 1.46 billion by 2030, constituting approximately 17% of the global population.
• Decline in Population Growth and Fertility: India has experienced a decline in population growth and fertility rates since the 1970s, as evident from decreasing Total Fertility Rates (TFR).
• Demographic Transition: With a projected TFR drop to 1.73 by 2035, India is anticipated to undergo a demographic transition characterized by a larger working-age population and fewer children.
• Peak of India's Demographic Dividend: India's Economic Survey 2018-19 predicts that the demographic dividend age will peak around 2041, with approximately 59% of the population falling within the working-age bracket (20 to 59 years).

India-Demographic Data

• Total Population: 1.22 billion (2011 Census) (17.71.% of World Population). India will be the most populous country by 2100.

oRural Population: 68.84 % (Census, 2011)

oUrban Population: 31.16% (Census, 2011)

• Working Population: Working adults (20-64 years) will reduce from around 762 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100
• Total Fertility Rate: Reduce to 1.29 by 2100 from 2.1 in 2019
• Immigration: India will be the second-largest net immigration in 2100.