Will China Hold Up its Side of the Truce Bargain?

Livemint     14th September 2020     Save    

Context: After a prolonged phase of playing cat and mouse, India and China last Friday declared a truce and the promise to end the brinkmanship.

Reasons leading to failure of the talks: Chinese history of being deceitful, double-speak and relentless pursuit of Middle Kingdom status (or the centre of civilization)

Setback for China: 

  • China is gradually losing the perception battle.
  • India's chutzpah against an economic and military giant.
  • Equally good opponent: India is equally committed to holding its own in protecting its borders.
  • External support to India: The fact that the US and Europe are in India's corner must be worrying to China.
  • Weather may become worse in coming days:  temperatures drop to -40 degrees is a daunting task for any army.
  • High Opportunity cost: China has all but lost a potentially lucrative market for its goods
  • Impact of COVID: World is pointing fingers on china due to its failure to alert and contain the spread of the deadly COVID-19

Concerns for India

  • Economy vs Border: Battling the worst contraction in its economy due to COVID-19 induced lockdowns, has had to divert precious mind space and resources toward bolstering its troops along the border
  • Risk of a two-front battle: Involving Pakistan on the western border—if the situation does worsen.

Conclusion: Two Asian majors have formally declared each other as rivals. India needs to assume that it will be at the receiving end of Chinese aggression—overtly and covertly.