Context

• On July 25-26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the Maldives, where he will serve as the Chief Guest at the country’s 60th National Day celebrations, according to the report.

About the News

• This visit is particularly significant as it marks the first under President Mohamed Muizzu's administration, following recent tensions in India-Maldives relations sparked by the "India Out" campaign.
• In October 2024, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu visited India and emphasised that the relationship between Malé and New Delhi is “built on respect and shared interests” and that Delhi has been, and is, one of the archipelago's largest trade and development partners.

Evolution of India- Maldives Relations

• The relationship between India and the Maldives has evolved over the years, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations. 
• Early Diplomatic Ties (1965-1978): The Maldives gained independence from the British in 1965, and established diplomatic relations with India.
  • India was one of the first countries to recognize the Maldives as an independent nation. 
• Strategic Partnership (1978-1988): The signing of the Maritime Boundary Agreement in 1979 helped define the maritime boundaries between the two countries.
• Political Turbulence (1988-2008): The relationship faced challenges in 1988 when a coup attempt in the Maldives led to the intervention of Indian forces in Operation Cactus. 
  • India’s military intervention was aimed at thwarting the coup and preserving the Maldives’ political stability. 
  • This event temporarily strained diplomatic relations but was later resolved.Normalization and Economic Cooperation (2008-2013): In 2008, the Maldives experienced a peaceful political transition, and Mohamed Nasheed became the President.
    • The relationship between India and the Maldives improved, focusing on economic cooperation, trade, and people-to-people ties. 
    • India provided developmental assistance to the Maldives, particularly in infrastructure projects and capacity building.
  • Period of Strain (2013-2018): The relationship faced challenges during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen, with concerns over issues such as democratic backsliding, human rights, and a perceived tilt towards China. 
    • The Maldives’ growing engagement with China, including infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, raised strategic concerns for India.
  • Renewed Engagement (2018 Onward): The election of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as the President of the Maldives in 2018 marked a shift in bilateral relations. There was a renewed emphasis on strengthening ties with India.
    • The two countries reaffirmed their commitment to democratic values, and India extended financial assistance for various developmental projects.

Significance of Maldives for India

• Geopolitical: Maldives is one of the cornerstones of India's NFP (Neighbourhood First policy) and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) due to its location.
• Strategic: 
  • Maldives is geographically positioned like a 'toll gate' between western Indian Ocean chokepoints (Gulf of Aden and Strait of Hormuz), and eastern Indian Ocean chokepoint of Strait of Malacca.
  • Situated along key shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean, Maldives is central to India's interests in safeguarding freedom of navigation, regional security and stability.
• Geo-economics: Maldives is located along the major commercial Sea lines of communication (SLOC).
  • 50% of India's external trade and 80% of India's energy imports transit through these SLOCs in the vicinity of Maldives. Also, India emerged as Maldives' largest trade partner in 2023 touching almost $1 billion.Security: A strong relationship with Maldives will enable India to counter China's ambitious 'String of Pearls' in the IOR.
  • Counter terrorism and piracy: For India, Maldives is the first line of defence against terrorism, piracy on the high seas, drug trafficking etc., in the Indian Ocean. 
  • Diaspora and Tourism: Indian expatriates makes up a large part of the workforce in the Maldives, especially in sectors like healthcare and education. Also, it is a popular tourist destination for Indians, which benefits both economies.

Challenges in the bilateral relationship

• China's strategic footprints: China's rising footprints in the Maldives through the 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI), 'String of Pearls' construct, investment in Maldivian infrastructures has raised concerns for India.
• E.g., construction of the Sinamale Bridge, pact for military assistance to Maldives, etc.    
• Radicalisation: Increase in radical Islamist fundamentalists in Maldives, including Pakistan backed jihadi terror groups, Islamic State (IS) etc.India's concern: These terrorist organisations may use Maldives as a launch pad for attacks on India and Indian assets.
• Anti-India sentiments: Growing anti-India sentiments under the current Maldivian regime, demanding withdrawal of Indian military troops and helicopters, halting Indian infrastructural developments, India-out campaign, etc.
• Lack of transparency and misunderstanding: Raising of objections by local Maldivian media in the agreements signed between the previous regime and India.     
• E.g. Indian grant-in-aid UTF (Uthuru Thila Falhu - Island) Harbour project was speculated by Maldivian media that it would be turned into an Indian naval base instead of Maldivian coastguard harbour and dockyard.

Way Ahead

• The evolution of India-Maldives relations reflects a combination of geopolitical dynamics, changes in leadership, and shared regional interests. 
• India is steadfast in its commitments towards Maldives and has always walked the extra mile towards building relations. 
• Any impulsive steps to undo the carefully nurtured all encompassing partnership is likely to harm Maldives more than it would India. 
• By acknowledging and addressing these challenges, India and the Maldives can navigate the complexities of their relationship and build a stronger, more resilient, and mutually beneficial partnership for the future.