WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS 2024 (Syllabus GS Paper 1 – Social Issues)

Context: The world's population is projected to peak within this century, with a current probability of 80%, up from 30% a decade ago, according to the World Population Prospects 2024.

World Population Prospects 2024

• About: It is the 28th edition of the UN's official population estimates and projections.
• Released by: United Nation
• Coverage: It provides population estimates from the 1950s to the present for 237 countries or areas, based on historical demographic trends.
• Future Projections: The 2024 revision includes population projections up to the year 2100, offering various plausible outcomes at global, regional, and national levels.

Key Findings

• Population Projections: The global population is set to peak at around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2 billion by 2100, marking significant demographic shifts.
• Revised Population Forecasts: Recent estimates suggest a 6% lower population projection for 2100 compared to a decade ago, indicating a downward revision of 700 million individuals.
• Peak Population Distribution: One in four people reside in countries where populations have already peaked, with significant variations across nations anticipated through 2054.
• Factors Driving Population Dynamics: Decreasing fertility rates, influenced by education, contraceptives, urbanization, and shifting societal norms, are pivotal in shaping global population trends.

India Scenario

• Population Growth and Momentum: Despite crossing the replacement fertility rate, India's populationS is expected to continue growing until the mid-2060s due to momentum, suggesting that current population control policies might be counterproductive.
• Capitalizing on Demographic Dividend: India is set to benefit from a large working-age population until the 2050s, making investments in education, health, and infrastructure essential to maximizing this demographic advantage.
• Challenges of Early Childbearing: Early childbearing remains a critical issue, with a notable adolescent fertility rate and persistent child marriages, impacting the health and opportunities for young women and their children.
• Need for Reform and Education: To address early pregnancies and improve women's health and economic participation, reforms should focus on enhancing education and delaying marriage and childbirth.