The Afghan Prognosis

Context: India has lost its influencing capabilities in determining the future course in Afghanistan. It should restrain itself and try to assume a low-key approach until the churning results into clarity.

Dynamics in Afghanistan:

• Taliban al-Qaeda symbiosis: as exposed by a recently released report of UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning the Taliban. 

• USA is here to stay: as the relation with al-Qaeda has been established, it has renewed interests fo the USA in the region.

• Pakistan’s stronghold: The links between ISI and the Haqqani networks are well known which denigrates India’s efforts in the region.

• Risk of terrorism: LeT and JeM cadres have been operating in the region undermining India’s security and stability along its border in Jammu and Kashmir.

• India’s absence in the region: 

• As the stakeholder knows the importance of Pakistan and doesn’t want to risk annoying the major participant by including India.

• Even time tested friends (USA) fight shy of holding India’s hand.

Suggestions:

• Keep a low key approach: As India cannot afford to be a provider or security excessively identify with any single Afghan faction; shoaled not lose our sense of realism and pragmatism

• Taking leverage of opportunities: 

• The recent appointment of an experienced senior diplomat as the new PR at the permanent mission in NewYork.
• India’s membership at the UNSC for the coming two year period. 

• Historical learnings: 

• The creation of a vacuum after the Soviet withdrawal 40 years ago led to the rise of Mujahideen .
• Calibrated retrenchment on our part enhances the prospects of constructive engagements.

• Reducing tensions with neighbours: India’s unfavorable matrix in today’s time is largely due to tensed relations with China and Pakistan.