Redesign Indo-Pak CBMs to inject vitality

Context: Indo-Pak Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) needs a revamp.

Indo-PakCBMs in J&K: These ideas are anchored in the discipline of conflict resolution that seeks to create an enabling environment for peace between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

• Cross-Line of Control (LoC) movement of civilians in 2005.
• Cross-LoC tradestarted in 2008.

Reasons for the failure of these CBMs

• Limited Cross-LoC trade: due to -
  • Poor state of Pakistan-controlled Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Lack of agriculture base and nascent industrial base.
    • It is a remittance economy: E.g. 70% of British Pakistanis have a direct or indirect connection with the Pothwari-speaking people in the area.
  • Traditional goods are traded predominantly: carpet rugs, handicrafts and basmati rice.
  • Mostly done by people outside Jammu and Kashmir: who exploited the advantage of zero duty in contrast to restrictive and high tariff trade between India and Pakistan along Wagah.
• Limited Cross-LoC movement of civilians:
  • Exclusionary in nature:  
    • The third and fourth generation descendants of Hindus and Sikhs who live in Jammu and other parts of India don’t fulfil the criterion of the cross-LoC movement.
    • Most migrants from India settled in Pakistan’s Punjab rather than in Pakistan-controlled J&K and thus are excluded.
  • Vanishing ties between families on either side: as the family members with direct connection expired and families expanded.

Way forward

• Scale down the expectations from cross-LoC trade: in influencing the India-Pakistan relations and make efforts for the larger India-Pakistan trade reality.
• Exploiting the trade potential: A 2017 World Bank report — Glass Half Full — had noted that the trade between India and Pakistan annually was worth $2117 million.
• Broaden the conceptual framework ofCBM related tomovement of civilians: All those with a familial connection with J&K in India or Pakistan should be allowed to travel to visit their ancestral places.
  • Open old Suchetgarh (Jammu)-Sialkot (Pakistan’s Punjab) route: which has already become a popular tourist destination on either side and allow families from both sides to freely move.
  • Give due importance to security: E.g. by initially allowing only people above the age of 60 years shall be allowed to move.