Why South China Sea Matters

Context: Geostrategic relevance of Indo-Pacific region should not be limited to the Sino-US competition, instead it holds strategic relevance for India’s economic and strategic security.

American Hegemony in Indo-Pacific 

• Termed as “resident power”

• Huge investments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 

• Security blanket through military presence: paved the way for the economic prosperity of the region. Without substantial increases in their defense expenditures

Chinese Hegemony in Indo-Pacific 

• Termed as “the reality on the doorstep”

• Investment in the region at the cost of its assertive policies.

• Unilateral recognition of Nine-Dash Line to declare the South China Sea as territorial waters.

• Territorial claims are neither treaty-based nor legally sound. 

• Chinese military presence does not support long-term peace and stability. 

• Rammed a Vietnamese fishing boat, “buzzed” a Philippines naval vessel and harassed a Malaysian oil-drilling operation.

• Heavy construction activities: runway, underground storage facilities, radar sites, and missile shelters.

• Ballistic missile tests and enhanced naval patrols to enforce area denial for others.

Indo-Pacific in Post-COVID World

• Regional prosperity at the cost of geostrategic tensions due to the transformation of the US-China relationship.
• Possibly heightened Sino-US competition will not let ASEAN reverse its stance of recognizing China as its largest trading partner and third-largest investor ($150 billion) in ASEAN. 

South China Sea’s Relevance for India’s Security

• It is not China’s sea but a global common. 
• Important sea-lane of communication.
• Historical and archaeological proof of a continuous Indian trading presence (from Kedah in Malaysia to Quanzhou in China.)
• Strategic trade route: nearly $200 billion of our trade passes through the South China Sea.
• Large Indian diaspora: our citizens study, work and invest in ASEAN, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.
• India’s stakes: in peace and security of the region in common with others who reside there.
• Freedom of navigation: essential for our economic well-being.
• Rising relevance of regional arrangements amid slow global trade for economic recovery and rejuvenation. 

Way Forward

• Strategic partnerships and high-level engagements with ASEAN.
• Longer-term buy-ins by India in ASEAN.
• India has to be part of the global supply chains in the Indo Pacific region to comply with the ideology of “Think Global Act Local”.
• India should recognize the value of RCEP beyond the economic gains they generate.
• Collectively encourage an increasingly powerful China to pursue strategic interests legitimately (international law) in the South China Sea. 
• Robust US military presence can ensure stable peace and security by countering assertive Chinese claims.

Conclusion: The real choice is not between China and America, it is between keeping the global commons open for all or surrendering the right to choose one’s partners for the foreseeable future.