Through its Own Prism

Context: India’s delayed implementation of the Chabahar project due to US sanctions should not be seen as India’s loss and China’s win. India should not arrive at hasty conclusions and damage its relations with Iran, which remains strategically important.

Reasons for India to maintain positive relations with Iran: Iran- China relations are more opportunistic than strategic.

• Declining Iran-China bilateral trade: Chinese purchases of Iranian oil have decreased substantially in the past two years and the overall bilateral trade fell to $23 billion in 2019 compared to a peak of $35 billion.
• Delayed 25-year strategic partnership plan of $400 billion: which is still in need of approval from China and the Iranian parliament. 
• Iran preferred to turn to the West: rather than China for its economic revival when US sanctions were lifted.
• Iran’s tilt towards China is just its projection of power for countering US’s sanction: like trilateral naval exercise was projected as a “new triangle of power.”

China’s  Approach towards Iran and the Arab States

• Simultaneous engagement with the Arab States and Iran:
• Iran: a key source of energy supplies, BRI partner and potential market.
• Arab States: China is its largest oil importer and source of military supplies.
• Expansion of Chinese economic, military and technological: capabilities in the Arab region.

• Trilateral naval exercise with Iran and Russia.
• Naval exercises with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and bi-annual China-Arab States cooperation forum.

Way Forward for India

• Policy of maintaining positive relations: with Iran, Arab states, and Israel, just as China has done.
• Revive the Iran nuclear deal: for ensuring the US and European companies to resume their business with Iran. 
• The pursuit of a closer security partnership with the US: should not be at the cost of India’s strategic relationship with Iran.
• Monitor closely the development of China-Iran relations: which could complicate India’s maritime and energy security.
• Chinese construction of the port at Jack would be of deep concern to the Arab states, as it will restrict their access to Hormuz strait.
• Press the concerns on Iran: so that Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region doesn’t undermine the maritime and energy security of the region.