Diplomacy after Galwan

Context: At a time when most of the world is finding it hard to stand up against pressures from China, Indian resistance to China’s expansionism would be a defining moment for Asia’s geopolitical evolution.

Shift in the India-China Policy: 

• Discontinuity in Diplomacy: 

• The recent Galwan encounter marks a change in India-China policy. However, any future shift is limited by following structural constraints:

• Stalled boundary talks
• Widening trade deficit
• Clash of national interest in the region
• Chinese opposition to India’s global aspirations.
• Focus on short-term: India has rightly focused over immediate concern of Chinese confrontation and is looking for partnership at this crucial juncture.

• Altering the power asymmetry: 

• Focusing on military alliances with the US and other western partners as well as economic decoupling and diversification.

• Partnering with Russia: Prospects and Challenges

• Prospects:

• Substantive dependence: Recent Defence Minister’s visit to Moscow, to ensure delivery of spare parts and additional weapons, displayed role of Russia in India’s security policy.

• Russia’s neutrality: Russia has avoided interfering in the bilateral relations between India and China.

• Challenges:

• Russia-China Strategic partnership: China is pressing Russia not to sell the new fighter aircraft.

• India’s engagement with the West: Russia and China have been wary of the growing India-US relations.

• Partnering with USA and the West:

• Prospects:

• US as major defence partner: US aircraft flying in Ladakh include C-130 transport aircraft, Chinook and Apache helicopter.

• Increased defence suppliers from the West notably France and Israel.

• Real time military intelligence sharing: has aided India during the crisis in monitoring Galwan Valley.

• Diplomatic support: US helped India in fending off efforts of China and Pakistan to involve UN Security Council in Kashmir’s affair.

• Challenges:

• Suspicious US’s intentions: Trump’s remarks on mediation between India and China were seen in a bad light of interference.

• Political Uncertainty in US: Rising electoral fortunes of Democrats cast shadows over increased cooperation between India and US.

• Political Constraint: The profound economic interdependence of US on China makes it difficult for US to take harsh actions.

Way Forward: 

• Move with care on military cooperation with the US: Too much dependence on US for our policies should be avoided.

• Do not waste diplomatic capital in seeking support: As most of the nations are economically dependent on China, they would not want to involve themselves into any conflict.