Climate Of Hope

Context: COP-26 must try to ensure that the world has a fighting chance of limiting global warming.

Challenges confronted by COP-26

• Elusive rules on emissions trading: While most of the rules were completed in 2018, the technical rules for emissions trading markets remain particularly contentious.
  • Most negotiators have not met in person for two years, and only a fraction of the usual preparatory work has been done.
• Excessive humanitarian interventions: The IPCC’s latest report released in August found “unequivocal” evidence that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, that temperature has already risen by 1.07 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial levels.
  • With seas rising faster since 1900 than any preceding century in the last 3000 years, and a continued rise expected during the 21^st century, impacting the small island and low lying nations.
  • India, with both a high disaster risk level (with exposure to flooding, landslides, cyclones) and high socio-economic deprivation, will be on the front line for such climate change impacts.
• Impact of the pandemic on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Pandemic has slowed the number of submissions to a trickle, and the plans submitted until a few weeks ago cover only 61% of the global emissions. Some countries like Indonesia are yet to submit.
  • Inadequate contributions: recent study, the 2021 UNEP Gap Report, estimates that current contributions will lead to a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius, a far cry from the Paris goal.
• Unrealised finances: The 2010 commitment by developed nations to mobilise US$100 billion per year by 2020 — a fraction of what is necessary — has yet to be realised.
• Announcements of net-zero targets: While over 130 nations have submitted their net-zero target, there are, however, serious issues of credibility, accountability, and fairness at play.
  • Short term contributions are seldom aligned with long-term net-zero targets, and many presume extensive reliance on carbon removal technologies.
  • They also shift the burden of mitigation and removal to future generations, leading youth claimants to challenge governments in court over intergenerational unfairness.
  • Intra-generational unfairness is also at stake, as long-term targets are demanded of all nations, regardless of their national circumstances, even though the Paris Agreement recognises that emissions will peak later in developing countries.

Way Forward: The COP-26 must ensure the world still has a fighting chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

• Getting the emissions trading rules right: so as to ensure robust accounting measures and real emissions reductions.
• Encourage differentiated responsibilities: Some countries will need to lower their emissions sooner than 2050 to create room for others, like India, to get there later.
• Instil credibility, accountability and fairness for net-zero targets.