A Climate Leader

Context: India has shown climate leadership with commitment to  low-carbon development and  net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070.

Impact of India’ s climate commitments at COP26

• An invitation to institutional investors and innovators: To develop next-gen smart appliances, grid storage, solar panels, wind turbines, energy-efficient industrial boilers, electrolysers for green hydrogen, or EV batteries.
• Huge prospects for emission reduction: Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) analysis shows that the near-term target for renewables capacity would result in 246 million tonnes of CO2 saved in the electricity sector alone in 2030.
• Put the ball in court of developed countries: Despite a 2070 net-zero year, India’s cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2100 would still be lower than that of US or EU (which have declared 2050 net-zero targets) or China (with a 2060 net-zero year).
  • Industrialised countries reduced emissions by only 7 per cent during 1990-2019.
  • India’s transition from peaking emissions to net-zero would be faster than any other major economy, which are taking a slow-motion route to net-zero stretching from four to more than seven decades.
• Called out the shifting of goalposts around unmet climate finance promises:
  • No guarantee that new deadline of $100 billion will be honoured as this was meant to be delivered by 2020 has now been pushed to 2023.
  • India has demanded $1 trillion “at the earliest” for developing countries. Effectively, $100 billion is now a floor not a ceiling for climate finance.
• Continues to show institutional leadership: Through launch of-
  • Infrastructure for Resilient Island States: An initiative under the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure to support vulnerable island countries.
  • Green Grids Initiative: One Sun One World One Grid in partnership with the UK to interconnect grids across countries and tap into renewable energy resources everywhere.

Issues with India’s climate commitments

• Feasibility of ambitious commitments: Getting to 500 GW of non-fossil capacity will not be easy.
  • Even if India builds another 50 GW of hydropower and nuclear capacity, it would still mean installing about 300 GW of additional renewables capacity.
  • Every working hour, six days a week, 365 days a year, for the next nine years, India would have to deploy at least 5 megawatts of renewable energy capacity.
• Net-zero date is too far into the future to be meaningful.
• Question on specific sectoral numbers: As CEEW analysis, shows that 2070 net-zero scenario will change the outlook for many key sectors.
  • With (green) hydrogen but without carbon capture and storage, by 2070 industrial energy will shift significantly. Hydrogen’s negligible share would have to grow to 19% of industrial energy by 2070.
  • Electricity from non-traditional sources provides less than 20% of industrial energy currently, but its share would have to jump to 65% by 2070.
  • Electric vehicles would have to be 84% of all four-wheelers and 79% of all trucks sold in 2070.
  • Coal-based power would have to be completely eliminated.

Way forward

• Legislative backing for long-term climate targets: Performance and progress towards net-zero by each successive government should be monitored by the Parliament.
• Policy and regulatory clarity through developing near-term and mid-term sectoral roadmaps.
• Creation of constitutional body known as National Commission on Climate Change, to deal with climate change as a strategic risk and an overarching development priority, and improve inter-ministerial and Centre-state coordination.
• Implementation of economy-wide carbon price to raise resources and nudge investments. As the
  • Economic cost for net-zero transition will amount to between $9,400 billion to $14,000 billion (in 2015 prices) between 2030 and 2100.
• Mindset change directed towards sustainability, regardless of the economic sector.
  • Use, reuse and misuse of resources (land, water, air, carbon) must become guiding principles to pursue jobs, growth and sustainability.
  • Just-climate transition for those impacted by economic shocks and by climate shocks.