Why China is being aggressive along the LAC

Context: China’s aggressive behaviour is in?uenced by a host of factors, from the fractures in the global order to the decline of India’s smart power which is the reason for Chinese intrusion along the LAC.

Reasons for Chinese aggressive behaviour along the LAC:

• Salami slice strategy: Beijing believes the global order is at a breaking point. For instance: 

• Global economy in the doldrums: Globalisation is in crisis accentuated by the COVID-19 outbreak.
• The U.S. under an isolationist President taking an aggressive position towards China.
• It is attempting to establish its hegemony piece by piece. 

• Shift in foreign policy: While big powers are grappling with the pandemic, China has more room for geopolitical maneuvering. E.g.:

• China’s rising tensions with the U.S. 
• Its threats against Taiwan.
• Repeated naval incidents in the South China Sea. 
• New security law for Hong Kong.
• The tensions along the LAC with India. 

• India is no more swing state: China sees India as an ally-in-progress of the U.S.  So it is not deterred by the counterweight in the region.
• India’s declining smart power: India’s traditional clout in its neighbourhood is slipping. E.g.:

• Tensions with Pakistan: have been high keeping the troops occupied in the border areas.

• Balakot airstrike also exposed eroding India’s deterrence. 

• Nepal raised boundary issues with India.
• Sri Lanka is diversifying its foreign policy by moving closer towards China.
• Bangladesh is concerned with the CAA. 
• Afghanistan: India is not taking part in the transition process.

• Lack of depth in strategic thinking: A deep embrace of a declining U.S. has become a part of India's problem in dealing with China.  

Way forward:

• National security strategy: decoupled from the compulsions of domestic politics and anchored in neighbourhood realism is the need of the hour.