The Stand-Off and China’s India Policy Dilemma

Context: As India seeks to reset ties with China, it must take note of the ongoing Chinese intellectuals’ debate on India.

Chinese Reasoning for Containing India:

• Long-standing speculative strategy: The present conflict is an inevitable result of India’s long-standing speculative strategy on the China-India border.

• For E.g. From Doklam to Kashmir to India’s unending infrastructure arms race at the LAC.

• No great prospect: China-India relations hold no great prospect in the current international situation and therefore no possibility of a negotiated settlement of the border dispute exists.
• Deterrence tactics: By daring to fight on the Chinese western frontier to effectively deter its adversaries on the eastern coast.
• Confronting a resurgent India: Rather than winning a war, attaining a comprehensive advantage in geopolitics vis-à-vis India.

• Policy of no weakness, no concession and no defensive defence. 
• Destabilising the entire border region from the McMahon Line in the east to the Aksai Chin area in the west.
• Stationing Chinese troops in the Gwadar Port (Arabian Sea) to secure Indian Ocean sea routes.

• Strategy of weakening India internally :

• By leveraging its social and political differences: Supporting the cause of Maoists, Naga separatists and Kashmiris.
• Completing its strategic encirclement.
• Improving troop deployment in the Tibet region to secure the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Criticism against Chinese Confrontation: 

• No Clear Strategic Intent: China’s policies towards India remain mostly tactical, of a “reactive nature” and are characterised by a “tit-for-tat” approach.

• Stokes Extreme nationalism in India: China’s reactive policies towards India encourage extreme nationalism in India and unites the nation against China.
• Encourages Anti-China alliance: If China-India ties are damaged beyond repair, it will further strengthen the anti-China alliance in the region.

• This alliance will take the initiative to reshape global industrial chains.
• Use of Indo-Pacific Strategy to check and balance China’s military and economic power, 
• Expanding international organisations such as the G-7 to weaken China’s influence in international affairs.

• Strategically unwise for China to get into a military conflict with India who has comparable military strength at this time. 

• India has advantages on various fronts such as deployment, supply line, practical war experience, topography, and climate among others.