Context: There is a need for a more unified Asian intervention in Afghanistan as its future will impact Central Asia and South Asia more than the distant global powers involved with it now.
Challenges faced by India in Afghanistan
Opening talks with the Taliban:
India’s original hesitation in opening talks with the Taliban, which even Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani had suggested, has cut India out of the current reconciliation process.
The decisions of the Troika (Russia, China and Pakistan) have kept India out of the talks with the Taliban.
Tensions with Pakistan: The end of any formal dialogue between India and Pakistan since 2016 and trade since 2019 have resulted in Pakistan blocking India’s overland access to Afghanistan.
India’s alternative route through Chabahar, though operational, cannot be viable or cost-effective also long as U.S. sanctions on Iran are in place.
Chinese intrusion: India’s boycott of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, and now tensions at the Line of Actual Control after the Chinese aggression in 2020, make another route to Afghanistan off-limits.
Ignored by the West: the U.S. has announced a new, surprise formation of a “Quad” on regional connectivity-- U.S. Uzbekistan Afghanistan Pakistan that does not include India.
Taliban’s increasing talks with Central Asia:
In 2018, Uzbekistan became one of the first countries to publicly invite a Taliban delegation from Doha, Qatar to visit.
Way Forward:
Identifying shared concerns with Central Asia: The worries of battles at their borders, safe havens for jihadist terror groups inside Afghanistan and the spillover of radicalism into their own countries.
Maintaining the government structure: It is necessary for India to work with them and other neighbours to shore up finances for the government in Kabul.
As part of the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), India must also step up its engagement with the Central Asian countries on fighting terror.
Better ties with Pakistan: which will ensure “practical connectivity” through Afghanistan to both the regions of South Asia and Central Asia.