Iran Ties Need Quiet Diplomacy

Context: India must continue to remain politically engaged with Tehran despite its partnership plan with China.

Reasons for Iran moving closer to China:

• Proposed strategic partnership programme: It involves Chinese investment in Iranian infrastructure and assured supplies of Iranian oil and gas at concessional rates.
• Tensions in the region: have been growing since last year.

• U.S. drone strike in January killing of Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani. 
• Mysterious explosions in the last four weeks, including at the ballistic missile liquid fuel production facility at Khojir.

• UN Security Council (UNSC) Sanctions: U.S. wants  UNSC resolution to continue the banning Iranian acquisition of conventional weapons.
• Sanctions provisions under The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): The US is still threatening to invoke the automatic snapback of sanctions provisions of JCPOA. 
• The policy of Maximum Pressure: Iran has found it difficult to cope with the Trump administration’s policy of maximum pressure.

• Chinese ability to withstand the U.S.’s sanctions. 

India need not worry about the proposed strategic partnership:

• Clarification by Iran:  India can join the rail link project between Chabahar and Zahedan at a later stage.
• Opposition to strategic partnership: The Iran- China strategic partnership road map has run into opposition in the Majlis:

• Hard-liners have accused Foreign Minister of undue secrecy surrounding the agreement.
• Rumours about China may be taking over Kish island and its troops would be stationed in Iran to secure its interests.

• Chinese mercantilist tendencies: Iranian negotiators are wary of growing Chinese mercantilist tendencies. 
• Sanctions waiver for India: Iran realizes India enjoys a sanctions waiver from the U.S. for Chabahar since it provides connectivity for land-locked Afghanistan. 
• Convergence in the Afghan peace process:  Iran and India also share an antipathy to a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. 

• Strong bilateral cooperation with Iran:

• Providing connectivity for Afghanistan through Iran has enjoyed support since 2003. 
• The signing of the Trilateral Agreement on International Transport and Transit Corridor between Afghanistan, Iran, and India. 
• Planning of a special economic zone (SEZ) at Chabahar.

Way Forward:

• Speedy implementation: India needs to improve its implementation record of infrastructure projects in its neighbourhood to prevent the Chinese footprint.
• Political engagement: India should continue to remain politically engaged with Iran to appreciate each other’s sensitivities and compulsions.