India’s continuing two-front conundrum

Context: The mistakes of 1962 in dealing with the two geopolitical adversaries provides lessons to India, which continues to face the two-front conundrum.

Mistakes made in the past

• Letting the guard down: India paid the price for forgetting about its two antagonists, conversely, whenever it took account of the same, it has done well.

• In 1962, J. Nehru and V.K. Menon believed that the principal threat came from Pakistan.

• In 1971, Indira Gandhi took account of possible Chinese support to Pakistan and took out an insurance policy in the form of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship with the Soviets.

• Blind-sided foreign and security policy: 

• As the Wuhan and Mamallapuram Summits resulted in diffused standoffs between India-China (Depsang, Chumar, and Doklam)

• Obsession with Pakistan and Complacency with China:

• India has demonstrated friendliness without reciprocity and firmness without force while interacting with China.
• V.K. Menon had an immutable belief that Pakistan was a threat, not China.
• Unaware J. Nehru: about Army General’s warning, of incapability to sustain an entire operation across the entirety of the India-China border.
• Acknowledged in parliament that India’s defense dispositions “were based on our unfortunate position vis a vis Pakistan”.

• Predicating security interests on personal predilections: misled by the good equation developed with Premier Zhou En-lai.

• Krishna Menon reassured Chief of Army Staff, before the war, that Chinese Deputy Premier has told him China would never fight over border issues.

China’s march to dominance: 

• Started with India becoming the object of Chinese aggression: 
• J. Nehru wrote to U.S President Kennedy, 1964: China was making a bid for leadership, not just Asia, but “as the first step in their bid for world leadership”

• China’s real aim: force India into a political settlement to reorient its policies to suit Chinese global interests and not to acquire territory.

Way Forward:

• Assess the options:  in a balanced way.
• Resist Temptations: to the remedy past errors by precipitate action
• Need a long-term vision: executed with patience and perseverance.
• “India has to hedge all bets and cover all contingencies.”