In Glasgow, All Eyes On 2030

Context: COP26 must focus sharply on reducing emissions till 2030, rather than on net zero 2050, which is too distant a goal.

Challenges before climate change mitigation

• High-emitter countries are short of emissions reductions required by 2030 to restrict global temperature rise to “well below 2°C” or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Excessive emphasis on net-zero 2050 alone neglecting 2030 targets: This diverts attention away from the urgent 2030 target of COP26. 
  • UNFCCC Synthesis Report on the updated NDCs of 113 parties tells us that global emissions in 2030 are expected to be 16.3% above 2010 level, whereas the IPCC has called for 2030 emissions to be 45% less from 2010 levels for the 1.5°C goal. 
• Insufficient contribution of countries towards climate change mitigation: U.S. is the world’s second-largest emitter, but 2005 baseline makes its commitment considerably lower than those of the EU, U.K. and others using the Kyoto 1990 baseline.
  • Insufficient promise of Biden Administration to reduce emissions by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 
  • Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, is ravaging Amazon forests, 
  • China’s relentless push to add maximum infrastructure, industrial and power-generation capacities before peaking in 2030, may use up much of cumulative global emissions available for 1.5°C.
• Increased gravity of the situation: As the updated NDCs report states that
  • Cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 likely to use up 89% of remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030 carbon budget of around 55 Gt CO2, which is equivalent to the average annual CO2 emissions in 2020–2030.

Way forward: COP26 must focus sharply on reducing emissions till 2030, rather than on net zero 2050

• Proper implementation of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle: All countries cannot be obliged to reach the goal of global net zero emissions by 2050.
• Developed countries should take most of the burden for reducing emissions as they are responsible for over 75% of accumulated atmospheric GHGs causing climate change.
• India – Ideal response: India should raise its NDC pledge of reducing Emissions Intensity (ratio of emissions to GDP) by 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030 to 38-40% or by 2070-75, invoking CBDR and comparing well with China’s 2060 pledge.
• India can achieve the ambitions of installing 450GW of renewable power by 2030, by adding green hydrogen or increasing electric vehicles into commitments.