Context: With the West done with Afghanistan, India needs to adopt a layered approach in finding a political solution.
India – Afghanistan ties: An overview
Till 1996: India has historically enjoyed good ties with Afghanistan, which go back to the 1950 Treaty of Friendship.
1996-2001: Indian interests and influence suffered when the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, captured Kabul in 1996.
Since 2001: India was back in action as soon as the Taliban were ousted from power after the U.S. invasion in 2001.
India has made huge investments and commitments ever since, which run into over $3 billion and cultivated strong economic and defence ties with the Afghan government.
2021: Uncertainty with U.S. pullback having effectively changed the balance of power in Afghanistan and Taliban making rapid territorial gains.
Analysing India’s option of talking with Taliban
Positive aspects:
An inevitable step: India has already established contacts with Taliban in Doha.
This would allow India to seek security guarantees from insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges.
Associated challenges and issues
Deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and Haqqani Network, a major faction within Taliban that’s driving successful campaigns on the battlefield.
Government still commands support: The Afghan military has some 200,000 battlehardened soldiers, including the highly trained special force.
Regional convergence against Taliban: None of these countries (China, Russia and Iran) would like to see Taliban taking over Kabul militarily because-
A jihadist-oriented Taliban regime would not serve China’s internal interests.
Russia fears that instability would spill over into former Soviet Republics.
For Shia theocratic Iran, a Sunni Deobandi Taliban will continue to remain an ideological, sectarian and strategic challenge.
Way Forward:
Take a layered approach:
Immediate goal should be the safe ty and security of its personnel and investments.
The long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis.
And if a political solution is not achieved, it should seek nonconventional methods, like what it did in the 1990s, to offer support to its allies within Afghanistan and retain some influence.
Finding a regional solution:
Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct engagement with the Taliban.
When it comes to Afghanistan, Iran is an irreplaceable country. It shares a long border with Afghanistan and has built contacts through several stakeholders in the country.
India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.
Maintaining a right balance between continental realities and the U.S.’s pivot to maritime Asia:
The U.S., and the West in general, are done with Afghanistan. India, as one of the countries that would be impacted by the consequences of American withdrawal.