China-Russia Ties as a Major Determinant

Context: A proper analysis of the partnership between Beijing and Moscow is critical to India’s foreign policy calculus.

Exploiting the Gaps in Russia-China bilateral relations:

• China’s undue advantage in Trade relationship:

• Due to falling oil prices and fears of new sanctions on Russian gas supplies, Russian exports are forced to be dependent on China.

• For E.g. After the western sanctions, China-Russia trade has more than doubled.

• Biased and Exploitative Trade Relation: China sees Russia as a powerhouse of raw material and a growing market for its consumer goods.

• China’s exports to Russia are at a higher technology level and the share of labour-intensive goods has declined. 
• Russian exports have continued to focus on raw materials, especially oil and gas. 

• Growing strategic dependence on China:

• Rising Military Alliance: Coordinated action in multilateral forums and increasingly sophisticated joint military exercises with third-party countries such as Iran.

• Supply of the Russian S-400 missile system to China.

• China is Russia’s biggest trading partner and the largest Asian investor in Russia. 

• Growing power-gap: China has established dominance in Russian backyards such as Central Asia and the Arctic regions.

• China does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and Russia takes a neutral stance on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

• Sovereignty Issues: China’s talk of rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation has raised fears about Chinese revanchism. 

• For E.g. There are Russian concerns over Chinese migration in the Russian Far East. 

• Economic concerns:  Russia thinks to control China through its energy dependency, and China feels that it can integrate Russia into its economy by redirecting Russian oil and gas eastwards. 

• While Russia needs financing, it is unlikely to give up its economic independence.

Way Forward: 

• Recalculate the relationship with Russia: Russia is now politically agnostic, commercially motivated and no longer shares India’s concerns about China. 
• Strategic partnership with Russia: Based on the absence of fundamental conflicts of interest and a shared belief for a multipolar world rather than a bi-polar, US-China dominated one.