The upcoming crisis in Indian federalism

Context: The national compact has to be reimagined so that post-2026, the most successful States are not punished politically.

Background: 

• Since 1976, seats in Lok Sabha have reflected the 1971 census and not taken into account changes in population, mainly to balance the issue of unequal population growth among States.
• India’s most highly developed and prosperous States have been successful at family planning, while poorer States continue to expand.
• Post-2026, when the freeze ends, there will be a seismic shift in national power towards India’s poorest and most populated States, which is sure to generate much resentment among States that will lose political and economic power and influence.

Issues Post 2026:

       

• Clash between democratic and Federal principles:
• Democratic principle: All citizens are equal and entitled to equal representation in governance. This would imply bigger States are likely to dominate national conversation over smaller States.
• Federal fears: Small States fear that they would get a smaller share of the pie economically, reduced say in national issues, and be irrelevant in the political governance of the country.
• Rising sub-regional chauvinism: As evident from the 1956 reorganisation of States on linguistic lines (linguistic federalism), any clash between federal principles and democracy will inevitably also have linguistic, religious and cultural implications.

Way forward: 

• Empowering states for strengthening Indian federalism: 
• More localised decision-making is bound to increase national prosperity and assuage fears of smaller States that they will be dominated by bigger ones.
• Major reform areas: Rationalising power allocation in 7th schedule, checks in provisions dealing with altering boundaries of States, re-envisage Panchayat governance.
• Reform role and composition of Rajya Sabha: Must be expanded so that it would allow smaller States a kind of brake over national majoritarian politics.
• Democratisation of financial redistribution: Must require the consent of all or nearly all States in major policy decisions such as GST.
• Protection of the minority: Constitutional provisions dealing with language and religion must also be inviolate. Minorities should be protected with a supermajority and not just a simple majority.
• Reorganisation of states: Serious thought must be given to breaking up the biggest States into smaller units that will not by themselves dominate the national conversation.

Conclusion: Lampedusa’s Il Gattopardo contains the memorable quote, ‘Everything must change for everything to remain the same. This includes the question of how we are to balance the competing claims of democracy and federalism, in the years to come.