The Rise of the Quad

Context:  The recent ministerial meeting of the four-nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in Tokyo has been followed by a decision to include Australia in the Malabar 2020 naval exercise.

Implications of QUAD on Indo-pacific region

• Checking threats posed by China to the geo-strategic and geo-economic landscape: 

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), debt-trap diplomacy, fictional territorial claims and a divide-and-rule strategy are the major problems in the region.

• Bypassing China-centric supply chains: The Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI) involving India, Japan and Australia are focussed on key sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and telecommunications.

• Enhance the role of the United States in the region: While the US cannot restore status quo ante in the South China Sea, it does boost the morale of disputants such as the Philippines, who are routinely bullied by China.

• Addressing China’s cloak of anti-piracy deployments: which  includes Chinese bases in Gwadar and Djibouti

• Moving towards Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)

• Providing an alternative: A Quad Plus format will cater the economic needs, including infrastructure, connectivity and capacity-building in the region to the investors looking for alternatives to China.

Challenges to the QUAD

• China may use wei qi principles and guanxi (networks and connections) to weaken the Quad: They may use this strategy on Japan and Australia who remain heavily dependent on China.

• China has regularly used the wei qi strategy to fracture ASEAN consensus 

Conclusion: Going forward, Quad should project itself as an alternative to China in the Indo-pacific region and should gradually elevate its meeting to ministerial levels.