Economic heft and foreign policy posturing

Context: China’s economic rise and technological excellence are well recognised in world capitals and its contributions to its aggressive external posturing.

Challenges before India: An analysis compared to China 

• Insufficiently factored: India lacks sufficient foreign policy calculus, the changes in the economic size, trade, foreign direct investment-related numbers and military strength of neighbouring and major powers.
• Lack of coordination between Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and that of commerce and industry (MoCI) and finance (MoF).
• Focus of West on Russia: The past animosity between the West and the Soviet Union has continued into the 21st century albeit with some dilution against Russia.
• Western publications in justifiably condemning violations of human rights within Russia.
• Russia’s military technology prowess is cited from the fact that India and China have recently bought the S-400 missile defence system.
• West attitude to China: In contrast to Russia West has a tendency to overlook China.
• West seldom mentions China’s oppression of millions of people living within its own borders, for example the Uighurs and Tibetans.
• China’s socio-economic strength: Western real and financial sector companies continue to profit enormously by having invested in mega-scale production of goods and services in China.
• Largest adequately trained workforce: With wage levels way below than those of developed economies and Russia too.
• Huge exporter: Wage-cost advantage enables China to be huge exporter of a range of engineering products.
• Huge investments: Around the world as it’s currently the highest importer of commodities such as coal, iron-ore, oil and agricultural products.
• Rising per capita GDP: Rise of 16.2 to 27 per cent to that of the US from 2010 to 2020. 61% of Russia albeit Russia’s diminishing per capita GDP (53.1 to 44.3 per cent to that of the US). Better rise than any Asian counterparts.
• China’s technological and military strength:  Integration with inter-country value chains and technological tie-ups with global corporations along with sophistication and international competitiveness of domestically produced goods, military equipment and services.

Conclusion: Howsoever well-conceived India’s present strategies cannot make up for the country’s systemic economic-technological deficiencies and societal schisms against increasingly belligerent China.

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