China’s Coercive Diplomacy Targets Bhutan

Context: Recent MoU signed between Bhutan and China dented India’s concern over its strong ally, Bhutan.

History of Bhutan - India relationship

• India’s strongest ally: Since 1949 friendship treaty.
• Perceptible change since New treaty in 2007:
  • Replaced provisions which required Bhutan to take India’s guidance on foreign policy.
  • Now, Bhutan does not require India’s permission to import arms.
• Transition to multi-party democracy. This change in polity of Bhutan has brought important changes in its foreign and economic policies.
• Increase in development partners: Initially, India was the only development partner of Bhutan, but the Himalayan nation now has 52 more such partners.

Shifting Bhutan-China relationship

• Anti-China stance: Despite China being keen on establishing relations, Bhutan remained the one country in South Asia where it has not been able to make major inroads.
• Border Disputes: Since 1984, talks to resolve the border dispute still continuing.
  • 24 rounds of talks have taken place, but there has been no major progress.
• Doklam, 2017: Changing Chinese diplomacy trying to bully Bhutan carrying out illegal infrastructure activity in Doklam region.
  • Assistance from India: India was forced to come to assistance of Bhutanese.
  • Led to a major stand-off: Though tension was defused later, it is believed that China is still trying to consolidate its position in the area.
  • Worsening China-India relationship: China started blaming India for intervening in its territorial dispute with Bhutan and calls India’s military assistance to Bhutan an infringement of its sovereignty.
• Claim over the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary: Persistently since June 2020 in eastern Bhutan. Seen as attempt by China to put additional pressure on Bhutan to come to the negotiating table.
• Recent MoU of Bhutan with China: To break the deadlock and to resolve the dispute on its own terms.
  • The recent MoU talks about a three-step roadmap, but so far no details have emerged.
  • Believe that the roadmap might be similar to the principles of the China-India border talks.
    • First establish basic political principles of boundary demarcation, and then solve specific disputes.
    • Finally sign an agreement and get down to the boundary demarcation.
    • Chinese claim on some territory in its northern part will have implications for India’s security. Hence Chinese fears India will try to scuttle the final agreement.

Conclusion: Bhutan still wants to make its economic progress largely with the help of India. At the same time, it does not want the India-China rivalry to create problems for it. India, however, has to be careful as the boundary claims of China have been ever-expanding in the region.