India can resist China by acting in concert with its adversaries

Context: There is an immediate need for short term answers to provocations by China, in addition to the long-term solution of accumulating economic power.

Chinese aggression: Chinese aggression extended further west after the 1962 war. China is now asserting that it always had sovereignty over Galwan Valley.

Prevailing view: 

• Tolerate Chinese aggression, and a valley lost here or a peak there doesn’t pose a threat to India. 
• It is worthy enough conceding some ground to buy time to grow the economy (Strategy adopted by our successive prime minster including the present prime minister – The Wuhan spirit after Doklam). 

Suggested Strategy:

• Short term: Alliance building and strategic defence

• In line with what Kautilya says “One submissive everywhere lives despairing of life… and one fighting with only a small army perishes like one plunging in the ocean without a boat. He should find shelter with a king superior to him or in an unassailable fort.”

• Long term: Sustained economic growth to provide a national power base capable of resisting a possible eventual Chinese military move (Arthur Cohen). 

Evaluating each option: 

• In favor of Alliance building: undermines our strategic autonomy, but we must reconsider our position on alliances. 

• Growing convergence between the USA and India in defense cooperation (since Vajpayee years).
• We cannot resist China without acting in concert with its adversaries (greater investment in the Quad and shaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power).

• Sustained economic growth: In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund projects China’s economy to grow at 1% in 2020 and India’s to shrink 4.5%. India will find it harder to regain a high-growth path. 
• For the foreseeable future, India will find it harder to regain a high-growth path.
• In the meantime, China will exploit its relative strength to change the status quo to its advantage.

Conclusion: Diplomacy without the capability to deny pleasure and give pain will not protect our interests and might not avert conflict.