Global Upheaval Caused by Chinas Premature Power Games

Context: In a sign of China’s arrival as a major power, global developments this decade have largely been shaped by China’s acts of commission and omission, and by the world’s response to it. 

China’s Acts of Commission and Omission 

• Even before the global economic crisis of 2007-08: China’s leaders had been preparing to assume the mantle of great power.
• Collective study session: of the entire Politburo for a historical investigation into the world’s great powers (by Hu Jintao)
• Commissioning of a 12-part documentary: to discuss the rise of great powers from Spain and Portugal in the 15th century to the US and Soviet Union in the 20th. 
• Systematic investing in military capacity: to counter the US, even as it exploited Western openness, investments and free trade to build its economic power (ever since the 1980s and especially after the 1991 Persian Gulf war) 
• Chinese began to move away from hiding and biding: began flexing muscles in the international arena.

• China’s ambassador to India upset a period of relative bilateral bonhomie: by declaring that Arunachal Pradesh was Chinese territory (2006).
• China acted prematurely, strengthening the resolve of its regional rivals and ultimately forcing the US to see China as a strategic adversary. 

Global Upheaval Caused by Chinese Premature Power Games

• Solidarity of the ASEAN crumbled under Chinese power: retained by Japan, Australia, India, and the US in the form of the Quad. 
• Strengthening its military power to be able to prevail at a later date: when the balance is not adequately in China’s favour like in the Western Pacific against the US, along the Himalayan border against India, or across the Taiwan straits it is 
• Financing the construction of infrastructure (BRI): in economically unviable projects, might induce political leaders in those countries to side with China, but is unlikely to substitute lucrative Western markets.

• BRI has failed to antagonized India: nationalist backlashes in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and even Pakistan demanded renegotiation of BRI contracts.

• Economic devastation: caused by COVID-19, results in more countries seeking lower interest rates, longer repayment terms, and outright write-offs that will ultimately pave the way for failure of BRI.
• Slower global growth: will hurt the business rationale of BRI projects.

Way Forward

• Edward Luttwak argued that in the absence of adequate military and diplomatic options to resist China, the best means is geo-economic one i.e restricting Chinese exports into their markets, denying raw materials and technology transfers.

Conclusion: History tells us that great powers decline because of overstretching, it may well be that China has overstretched itself even before becoming a proper great power.