Can India Show the Path Ahead if the US Ends up Losing its Way?

Context: India should take the opportunity to influence the world’s future if America lacks the resolve.

Factors leading to decline of US’s domination

• Rising China-European Union (EU) Collaboration:
• Accelerated negotiations on an investment agreement;
• An axis of Germany-Russia-China is becoming more likely.
• China’s Rise: 
• China’s 14th five-year plan would mark a move towards “the second centenary goal”, namely turning China into a powerful socialist country by 2049.

• US’s domestic ambivalence over China:

• Due to fear of isolation and lacking self-confidence, the US’s domestic politics remains ambivalent over its policies against China.

• Economic turbulence in the US:

• Large fiscal deficits and high public and private debt.
• Euro has temporarily become stronger against the US dollar.
• Russia and China want to settle trade in currencies other than the US dollar and may even call for a new Bretton Woods type global arrangement.
• EU is seen to have agreed on debt mutualization among its member states.

Way Forward: With the US’s geopolitical credibility declining, India has an opportunity to lead the world, with at least four prerequisites:

• India must shed its long-standing diffidence: and must recognize the opportunity to play a major role in influencing global geopolitics.

• US withdrawal from the Quad would provide opportunities for India to lend substance the grouping.
• India will have to become adept at harnessing US public opinion and influencing its lawmakers.

• Must be clear headed: for there will be any number of detractors— inside and outside the country—who will ridicule the effort.

• India must punch above its weight: without appearing to do so. – [Stealth Actions].

• India should work on gaining economic girth:

• Policies that foster self-reliance can and should be pursued without being apologetic.
• Need a clear focus on extracting performance, productivity, good governance and ethical behavior from the private sector in return.

Conclusion: Without any obvious intent and plan, India may find itself in a position to influence the shape of global events to come. It should not let such an opportunity go waste.