RBI’s Hamletian Dilemma

Context: The relationship between monetary policy and inflation is not reliable in a crisis, creating a classical problem for the central bank.

Role of Monetary Policy Framework 2015:

• Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT): was formally adopted in India

• The Central Government, in consultation with the RBI, notified the inflation target of 4.0% - with 6.0% and 2.0% as the upper and lower tolerance levels.

• Inflation target applicable from August 5, 2016, to March 31, 2021.

• In case of failure to sustain the targets, RBI would send a report to the central government stating the reasons for its failure and propose remedial measures to be taken.

Issues with the FIT regime in recent times:

• Inflation consistently higher than 6% mark: since December 2019 with the exception of March 2020.

• Given the limited lockdown and its re-imposition – supply shocks may continue until the COVID situation improve.

• Continuing deceleration even before the pandemic:

• Indian growth had been decelerating over the last eight quarters, and the January–March 2020 quarter saw a low growth rate of 3.1%.
• Liquidity conditions have been kept in the surplus mode since June 2019.

• Negative apprehension of the pandemic: Lowest growth in 40 years

• The International Monetary Fund in its June 25 projections has placed Indian growth for 2020-21 at (-) 4.5%

• Provision of sizeable monetary stimulus: to rejuvenate the depressed economy.

• RBI since February aggregated to about Rs 9.57 trillion (equivalent to about 4.7% of 2019-20 nominal GDP).

Way Forward: 

• RBI should stick to FIT regime: Even though high inflation can pose a dilemma of whether to prolong stimulus or pause rate cut cycle, RBI should take appropriate action as the future unfolds.

• Place monetary policy decisions under an escape clause: similar to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, that allows the government to borrow money in exceptional circumstances.