Peaking Population

Context: As the Indian population has been stabilizing, there is a need to check for its social implications.

Findings of Institute of Health Matrix and Evaluation at the University of Washington

• Use of the new model: Instead of the conventional method of determining population growth (Total Fertility Rate), the model utilized “completed cohort fertility at 50 years”.

• It relates to the mean of the number of births per female aged 50.
• Other variables used: Education Attainment and the availability of contraceptives have also impacted the cohort fertility.

• Population predictions:

• The global population will peak in 2064, at 9.73 billion people, and
• Then begin to decline: ending at 8.79 billion in 2100.

• The model predicts almost 600 million fewer people in South Asia in 2100 than was earlier expected from the United Nations Development Programme estimates.

• India specific figures: 

• India’s population will be largest in 2100, at 1.09 billion people, followed not by China but by Nigeria at 791 million.
• India dipped below the replacement rate of fertility (TFR-2.1) in 2018, TFR in 2040 will decline to 1.29.
• India will have the largest working-age population by 2100.

• Impact of Migration: US’s economy will rise again due to immigration

• China would become the world’s largest economy in 2035, but then by the end of the century would be replaced once again by the United States.

Way Forward: 

• Some areas will begin to shrink before others—they will need to be accepting of migration, as well as net providers of capital to the rest of the economy.
• Manage the conservative elements of the society due to the advances in women’s rights, as a decline in fertility might lead to socio-political fallout.