Beyond the Galwan fastness

Context: Energy security in the Indian Ocean could be India’s next big challenge.

Strategic significance of the Indian Ocean: 

• Energy Security : 

• Home to 13% of the world trade: more than 2/3rd of the global oil and half of the global coal trade passes through it.
• Critical Bay of Bengal: close to 30% of India’s coal supply from eastern and western coast plies on it.

• Trade-in domestic coal from Jharkhand, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat.
• Gas Exploration basins off the Krishna Godavari critical for expansion of gas grid on the eastern coast, including plans to import gas and trade with Bangladesh.

• Military Presence: to ensure the safety of sea routes

• Indian has established bases in the Indian Ocean as far south as French-run Reunion islands.

• China has a military presence in Djibouti (Strait of Mandeb) and Malacca (Lombok Strait). 

• Threatened by naval blockade: As both India and China are suffering from an energy shortage and economic slowdown (hurting progress in renewable energy transition).

• India has begun to develop onshore strategic oil reserves.
• India faces threats in the Bay of Bengal region due to extreme Chinese presence:

• Port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka already established
• Plans to build a port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar;
• Payra in Bangladesh and small river port near Sittwe, Myanmar.

• Prone to expansive notions of nautical boundaries:

• China is taking the unconventional path (recent LAC standoffs) to expand its presence; which might result in China securing its interests over the Indian Ocean.
• It will raise the cost of ships as they will take longer diversions; added insurance costs will put additional burden.

Way Forward:  

• Cooperate with partners: 

• Quad can be used to plan a naval exercise with Japan, Australia and the US in the Bay, 
• Cooperation with France to deploy an Indian Navy maritime patrol vessel in the Indian Ocean region.